Friday
March 1
5:00 pm | Seascape
Reception
6:00 pm | Seascape
Official Welcome Remarks, Panel, and Poetry
Workshop co-chairs Ajay Agrawal, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Anton Korinek give welcome remarks and preview the weekend ahead. The opening panel will explore possible pathways to TAI, the technological breakthroughs required, and how those might be financed, setting the stage for some of the major questions of the weekend. We conclude with some after-dinner poetry.
Panel: Financing Our Way to Transformative AI
Moderator: Ajay Agrawal
Speakers: Cari Covent, Steve Jurvetson, Vinod Khosla, Geordie Rose, Rich Sutton
Poet: Avery Slater
Readers: Sinead Bovell, Shannon Liu
Saturday
March 2
7:30 am | Seascape
Breakfast
8:30 am | Chapel
Call to order and ground rules
Speakers: Erik Brynjolfsson, Christie Ko
8:40 am | Chapel
The TAI Roadmap:
Intelligence in the Digital World (Cognitive and Emotional)
The year is 2034. How did we get here? In this panel discussion, AI researchers and practitioners tell us how TAI happened in the digital world
Moderator: Erik Brynjolfsson
Speakers: Dario Amodei, Mira Murati, Andrew Ng, Peter Norvig
Discussants: Eric Horvitz, Alexandr Wang
10:45 am | Chapel
The TAI Roadmap:
Embodied Cognition (Intelligence in the Physical World)
The year is 2034. How did we get here? In this panel discussion, AI researchers and practitioners tell us how TAI happened in the physical world.
Moderator: Erik Brynjolfsson
Speakers: Pieter Abbeel, Sanja Fidler, Scott Phoenix, Sebastian Thrun, Raquel Urtasun
Discussants: Tom Mitchell, Olivia Norton
1:30 pm | Chapel
Transformative AI's Effects on Productivity and Growth
How can transformative AI unlock unprecedented economic growth? This session will explore the dual engines powering AI's growth impact. First, AI may substitute for human labor across sectors, boosting output. Second, AI can dramatically accelerate innovation and technological progress. We also examine how barriers to adoption and bottlenecks may hold back the growth potential of Transformative AI.
Moderator: Anton Korinek
Speakers: Ben Jones, Jakub Growiec, Sendhil Mullainathan, Laura Veldkamp
Discussants: Tamay Besiroglu, Tom Davidson
3:00 pm | Chapel
Labor Markets, Jobs, and Inequality
Will labor markets vanish? The economic exchange of labor for income is one of society's most foundational constructs. What happens to labor markets, jobs, and inequality if machines can perform virtually all the tasks of human workers? We explore whether certain jobs may remain viable even if their required tasks become technically automatable, creating work opportunities safe from displacement. In addition, we evaluate alternative mechanisms for income distribution.
Moderator: Anton Korinek
Speakers: David Autor, Pamela Mishkin, Pascual Restrepo, Daniel Susskind
Discussants: Michael Chui, Albert Wenger
4:45 pm | Chapel
AI Risks and Alignment
This panel considers the potentially catastrophic risks and consequences associated with the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence. We explore strategies for measuring and mitigating these risks. In addition, we examine whether and how the development of transformative AI may balance innovation with responsibility, contributing positively to society without compromising global safety.
Moderator: Anton Korinek
Speakers: Dan Hendrycks, Katya Klinova, Max Tegmark
Discussants: Leopold Aschenbrenner, Emilia Javorsky, Stuart Russell
6:30 pm | Seascape
Dinner with Fireside Chat:
Motivation and Meaning
In a world where machines can do virtually all the tasks humans currently do, what happens to human motivation and meaning? Panelists address questions surrounding the evolving relationship between humans and AI, examining how these technologies might contribute to the broader quest for meaning in work, relationships, and society.
Moderator: Erik Brynjolfsson
Speakers: Reid Hoffman, William MacAskill, Avery Slater
Sunday
March 3
7:30 am | Seascape
Breakfast
8:15 am | Chapel
Welcome back
8:30 am | Chapel
Concentration, Power, and Political Economy
We can imagine a future with a vibrant, competitive market predicated on many AI providers (open source and/or proprietary) or only a few providers. A natural oligopoly in machine intelligence might still be beneficial for society or these AI providers could monopolize benefits, stifle competition, and wield disproportionate influence over critical decision-making processes. Will winner-take-all dynamics drive a consolidation of power? What steps can we begin taking today to increase the likelihood of a good outcome for society?
Moderator: Ajay Agrawal
Speakers: Susan Athey, Avi Goldfarb, John McHale, Janice Stein
Discussants: John Horton, Shannon Liu, Michael Zerbs
10:00 am | Chapel
Break
10:15 am | Chapel
How Should We Attempt to Influence the Rate and Direction of TAI Development?
In hindsight, what are we most likely to wish we had regulated differently or provided more or less incentives for that influenced the rate and direction of developing Transformative AI?
Moderator: Ajay Agrawal
Speakers: Anousheh Ansari, Joshua Gans, Gillian Hadfield, Kent Walker
Discussants: Yoshua Bengio, Abhishek Nagaraj, Alex Oettl, Florenta Teodoridis
12:15 pm | Seascape
Lunch
A New World: Policies for the Best Possible Transition
If we knew with certainty that Transformative AI would occur within 10 years, then what actions should economic policymakers take today to prepare?
Moderator: Ajay Agrawal
Speakers: Kevin Bryan, DJ Patil, Betsey Stevenson
Discussants: Michael Fisch, Andrew McAfee, Laura Rosella
1:30 pm | Chapel
Next Steps and Closing Comments
We consider what new research ideas, policy priorities, and other actions have emerged over the course of our weekend together.
Speakers: Ajay Agrawal, Erik Brynjolfsson, Anton Korinek
2:00-5:00 pm
Recreational Activities (Optional)
Attendees who can stick around this afternoon will have the opportunity to engage in yet-to-be-announced recreational activities on or near the Asilomar grounds.